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India to have 2.5 per cent peak-time power surplus this financial year: CEA

India to have 2.5 per cent peak-time power surplus this financial year: CEA

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The country is likely to experience energy surplus of 4.6 per cent and peak power surplus of 2.5 per cent in the fiscal year through March 2019, the authority has said in its annual publication Load Generation and Balance Report (LGBR)

New Delhi: India may be looking at a huge electricity surplus in most part of the country in the current financial year, according to the latest data released by the power ministry’s technical planning wing Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

The country is likely to experience energy surplus of 4.6 per cent and peak power surplus of 2.5 per cent in the fiscal year through March 2019, the authority has said in its annual publication Load Generation and Balance Report (LGBR).

Three states are expected to witness peak time power surplus of more than 30 per cent including Tripura at 30.6 per cent surplus, Himachal Pradesh at 35.7 percent and Sikkim at 79.2 per cent, apart from areas served by Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) at 40.4 per cent.

However, five states are likely to have peak power deficit of more than 15 per cent — Punjab with 19.6 per cent power deficit, Bihar at 18.9 per cent, Uttar Pradesh at 17.4 per cent, Assam at 17.4 per cent and Jammu and Kashmir at 15.1 per cent.

In 2017-18, CEA had projected an all-India peak power surplus of 11,471 Mw or 6.8 per cent but the country suffered from a peak power deficit of 2 per cent.

This year’s LGBR report also states Western, Northern and North-Eastern Regions will have energy surplus of 1.9 per cent, 14.8 per cent, and 22.9 per cent, respectively. However, Eastern and Southern regions are likely to face energy shortage of 4.2 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively which can be met from surplus power in other regions.

The report also projects peak time surplus availability of power of the order of 9.3 per cent, 4.9 per cent, and 12.6 per cent for Western, Eastern and North-Eastern regions respectively, while Northern and Southern regions are likely to face peak deficit of 1.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent.

Experts say the Indian power system is becoming energy surplus but peak deficit due to increased share of renewables and reducing share of hydro and gas-based power generation. “With economic revival and power demand coming back, we might not have a peak surplus as projected by CEA,” said Debasish Mishra, Leader, Energy, Resources and Industries at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu in India.

Another expert said CEA may have projected a surplus in power availability but multiple challenges related to generation potential remain to be addressed. “While domestic coal availability and coal logistics may impact actual thermal generation, variability and seasonality may impact wind and hydro generation. These factors, to some extent, may impact energy availability in the current fiscal. This was also evident in FY 2017-18 when we saw energy deficit scenario of about 1 per cent due to similar reasons as against surplus estimated by CEA in LGBR estimates at all-India level,” said Sabyasachi Majumdar, Senior Vice President at ICRA.

CEA said the assessment of the anticipated power supply position for 2018-19 has been made taking into consideration power availability from various stations in operation and renewable energy sources apart from fuel availability and anticipated water availability at hydro stations. The authority has projected a capacity addition of 9,626.15 Mw for the current fiscal including 8,216.15 Mw of thermal, 910 Mw of hydro and 500 Mw of nuclear power plants.

Source: energy.economictimes.indiatimes
Anand Gupta Editor - EQ Int'l Media Network

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