In FY15 (April 14 – March 15), India imported the largest amount of thermal coal ever – 174Mt, 24% of its demand. Some think that this trend will continue and India can act as a counterweight to the decreasing imports from China. Two issues will, however, make this impossible:
Fast growth in renewable energy will reduce growth rates of coal power production (and hence coal demand). Our NEO 2015 analysis predicts that India will produce 75% more electricity from coal-fired generation in 2030 than in 2015 – a 3.6% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) compared to 6.8% during FY04-14. Moreover, improvements in thermal efficiency of India’s coal-fired generation fleet will result in demand increasing only by 49% to 2030.
The government wants to obliterate thermal coal imports by 2017 by doubling production of Coal India Ltd (which already has a 80% market share) by FY2020. That may be too good to be true. However, our realistic base case production forecast reveals that India’s imports are likely to peak this fiscal (if that has not happened already in FY15) and in theory it can cease thermal coal imports in the year FY23 (although some imports may continue at costal power plants).
For More Information Pls.Go Through Attached PDF..2015-12-09 – India coal imports peak