UN’s February 10 Deadline Approaches, But Are Countries Ready to Raise Climate Ambition? – EQ
In Short : As the UN’s February 10 deadline for updated climate commitments nears, questions remain about countries’ readiness to enhance their ambitions. While some nations have pledged stronger emissions cuts and renewable energy targets, others lag due to economic and political challenges. The deadline is crucial for aligning global efforts with the 1.5°C goal under the Paris Agreement.
In Detail : Nearly 197 countries worldwide are required to update and submit their national climate action plans to the United Nations (UN) by February 10. But as the deadline for submission approaches, it is becoming clear that many countries are likely to miss it. The Paris Agreement signed in 2015 requires countries to put forward national climate plans – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – every five years, reflecting higher ambition each time.
These NDCs outline each country’s commitment to reducing emissions, contributing to global efforts to control warming. The latest NDCs will detail governments’ climate action through 2035, keeping the latest Global Stocktake into account.
For instance, in its first NDC in 2015, India committed to reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% from 2005 levels by 2030. It also vowed to achieve about 40% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources by 2030, as well as to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
In August 2022, it updated its plans with a goal to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP to 45% by 2030 from the 2005 level, and the target on cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources to 50% by 2030. The targets were aligned with India’s long-term goal of reaching net-zero by 2070.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATUS?
So far, only Brazil, the US, the UK, Uruguay, Switzerland, the UAE, New Zealand, Canada, Andorra and Ecuador have announced new plans – accounting for 16% of global emissions. Most other nations are expected to unveil their NDCs in the months leading up to the COP30 climate summit later this year, according to experts.
“While most nations will not deliver their plans this month, it’s far better to have strong commitments later this year than rushed, weak ones now. Above all, new national climate commitments should be judged by how rapidly they cut emissions and better protect people from increasingly severe climate impacts,” said David Waskow, International Climate Director, World Resources Institute (WRI).
The pressure is more on the largest historical emitters led by the G20, which have a responsibility to unveil bold new plans, and cut down their fossil fuel use. While the UK has committed to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions by 81% from 1990 levels with a Net Zero goal of 2035, the US under former President Joe Biden had set an economy-wide target of reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 61-66% below 2005 levels in 2035. But current US President Donald Trump has decided to pull the US out of all obligations under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
WHY THE DELAY?
Many countries, including India, are likely to delay their submissions until later this year. According to experts, the last round of NDCs was delayed by a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so countries have had only four years since then to come up with new plans. Also, during the last NDC round in February 2020, only 48 countries had submitted by the end of the year, and most others did so by COP26 in late 2021.
“Smaller developing nations also face capacity constraints as they have had to complete their biennial climate progress reports and are also meant to table new national adaptation plans this year. Countries should submit their new, ambitious plans ahead of the UN General Assembly in September at the latest so the world can accurately assess where we stand before COP30 in Brazil,” said Waskow.
The developing countries also lack the financial resources needed to achieve the targets, and hopes for adequate finance were further dashed after COP29’s meagre climate finance target. Experts also point out that developing comprehensive, cross-sector climate plans requires significant coordination and planning among governments and key actors. Additionally, there have been over 60 national leadership changes in 2024.
“The world must push for stronger commitments from developed economies to support developing and under-developed economies in the interest of the global public good. In India, irrespective of the NDCs, the government is on track for a clean energy growth pathway. However, an updated NDC is India’s chance to claim global climate leadership at a time when the US has abdicated that position and the EU is in political turmoil,” said Aruna Sharma, former secretary, Ministry of Steel.
