India is expected to be among the top growth markets in the world for electricity in the coming decade and is projected to grow at 4.6-5.6 per cent until 2030. The grid electricity requirement is projected to reach 2,057-2,341 TWh (Terawatt-hour) growing at a CAGR of 4.6-5.6 per cent by 2030, a report by a Washington based non-profit public policy organisation said.
“Coal will remain a dominant source with over 50 per cent share in a generation. Coal may contribute 1,090-1,779 TWh, a substantial range dependent on non-fossil penetration,” the report by the Brookings Institution said. However, imported coal’s share may grow from 12.2 per cent in 2017 to 15.5 per cent, reaching 129-198 million tonnes by 2030, it said.
Net generation from captive plants is projected to grow to 318-361 TWh with a CAGR of 4.6-5.6 per cent with coal contributing two-thirds of it. Overall coal demand for the power sector will increase from 672 million tonnes in 2017 to 827-1,277 million tonnes by 2030 with CAGR of 1.6-5.1 per cent, marking a considerable slowdown from 6.7 per cent CAGR between 2012 and 2017, the report said.
The analysis indicated that coal peaking is unlikely by 2030 unless 500 GW of solar and wind capacities are deployed with adequate storage and alternatives. Based on historical trends and assessment of future coal quality, plant specifications and logistics, imported coal’s share may grow from 12.2 per cent in 2017 to 15.5 per cent, reaching 129-198 million tonnes by 2030, the report projected.