“EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook isn’t used in an exploratory manner and their…model isn’t sufficient for modeling our changing landscape, particularly in the electricity sector,” he said.

Analysts were quick to point out the daylight between other long-term estimates and the EIA’s projections, which don’t include commitments made by global leaders as part of the Paris climate agreement.

The International Energy Agency, for example, now produces two scenarios that seriously consider the Paris Agreement. Even the major oil and gas companies include these kinds of scenarios in which emissions targets are met and there is a rapid uptake of electric cars and renewable energy production.

“We’ve seen with wind and solar that the industries have experienced major cost reductions on the order of 60 to 75 percent over the last decade,” Clemmer said. “And I think the EIA has had trouble keeping up with those gains.”

Source: greentechmedia