Target compliance in India is likely to bifurcate the next decade’s outlook, with near-term challenges posing issues for the 2020 target
New Delhi: Aggressive renewable energy target in India and “explosive” growth in the offshore sector are expected to drive a 10-year CAGR of 12.2 per cent in the wind energy sector in Asia Pacific, excluding China, said a report by research group Wood Mackenzie.
“Target compliance in India is likely to bifurcate the next decade’s outlook, with near-term challenges posing issues for the 2020 target. Cumulative offshore capacity in the region will reach almost 19 GW from just 111 MW at the end of 2018, led by growth in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea,” said Luke Lewandowski, director, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Research.
He also said that China’s market recovery would continue, as additional provinces in the north work to lift red warnings, supporting 250 GW of capacity through to 2028. The annual share of offshore wind in China will average 18 per cent of annual capacity from 2022 to 2028, as a result of onshore grid constraints and saturation.
According to the report titled ‘Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q1 2019’, 723 gigawatt (GW) of new global wind power capacity is expected to be generated from 2019 to 2028. It added that 50.2 GW of new wind power was added globally in 2018, a 4 per cent year-on-year increase.
Lewandowski, said: “This significant level of investment seen last year was largely driven by a resurgence in China. The lifting of red warnings in key Northern provinces in China unlocked development, contributing to a 37 per cent uptick year-on-year in the country (+5.6 GW), that influenced nearly 2 GW of net capacity additions globally last year.”
He added that the expiration of legacy subsidy programmes in Europe tempered year-on-year gains in China, with countries in Northern Europe (-26 per cent year-on-year) and Western Europe (-36 per cent year-on-year) hit the hardest as the RO (UK) and FiTs (Finland and Germany) phased out.
The reported said that the transition to auctions in Europe would support a new level of annual capacity additions, with the region expected to average 20 GW annually.
Lewandowski added that offshore remained central to Europe’s outlook, comprising more than 25 per cent of new capacity over the outlook (CAGR of 14 per cent) and penetrating new markets in Southern and Eastern Europe.