China’s carbon emissions will probably peak on or before 2030, a survey of industry participants found.
About 90 percent of 260 stakeholders in the nation’s carbon market gave that forecast, while more than half said the milestone would be reached by 2025 at the latest, according to the survey, which was conducted by China Carbon Forum, ICF International Inc. and SinoCarbon Innovation & Investment Co. between March and July.
The results underscored industry confidence in China’s efforts to meet a target of capping emissions by 2030 as the nation shifts to renewable energy and curbs coal power. The world’s biggest clean-energy investor has also pledged to start a national carbon market later this year to reduce emissions.
Almost 50 percent of participants in the survey expect China to complete the carbon market by 2020 with all key segments in place, while 44 percent anticipate that will happen between 2021 and 2025.
Among survey responses since 2013, “we saw a very consistent expectation that China’s carbon market will be fully functional around 2020,” Dimitri de Boer, vice chairman of China Carbon Forum, said at a press conference in Beijing. “This requires lots of investment in capacity building and in getting all stakeholders aligned.”
- The average carbon price is forecast to be 74 yuan ($11) per metric ton in 2020, almost double the 38 yuan estimated in 2017. By 2025, the price may surge to 108 yuan a ton
- 38 percent of the stakeholders expect investment decisions in 2017 will be affected significantly or to some extent by carbon trading. The figure surges to 75 percent for 2025
- Through 2025, China will shift to carbon trading, environmental taxes, information disclosure and energy-quota trading to reduce emissions
- 95 percent of survey participants said country-level laws or central governmental regulations are needed to maintain compliance with carbon-trading rules
- 61 percent of stakeholders think China’s carbon market will be linked with other international systems by 2030