China’s growing electric vehicles market could threaten gasoline demand: expert analysis

Low-speed electric vehicles — ultra-affordable electric cars about the size of a golf cart — are taking off in China and could disrupt gasoline markets in the coming years, according to Rice University analysis.

As demand for the cheap and sustainable vehicles grows in China, gasoline demand in the country could fall sharply, according to economic analysis by Gabriel Collins, a fellow in energy and environmental affairs at Rice’s Baker Institute. At the estimated size of China’s low-speed electric vehicle fleet today, the potential fuel demand displacement could exceed 60,000 barrels per day of gasoline, which is 2 percent of China’s total gasoline demand.

The vehicles, which can be purchased for as little as $3,000, protect consumers from the elements, are easy to charge and are faster than an e-bike. For each 1 million low-speed electric vehicles in China, about 15,000 barrels per day of gasoline demand could be lost, he estimates.

And, there is a good chance that consumers who purchase an electric vehicle as their first car will stay electric for their future vehicles, Collins writes, which would eliminate a source of gasoline demand growth in the long run.

China’s diesel demand has already plateaued. China’s gasoline demand, meanwhile, has continued to grow, but it appears to be slowing. With more technological disruptions, including low-speed electric vehicles, Collins writes, China may no longer drive crude oil demand with its passenger car fleet.

“They are a wild card worth watching,” Collins wrote in the analysis.

Source: chron