India’s dependence on coal will continue even after three decades from now with an estimated share of 42-50 per cent of the country’s energy mix, said a report.
The report, titled ‘Energising India’, has been jointly prepared by the NITI Aayog and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
The report further said that penetration of renewable energy will increase from 3.7 per cent in 2012 to 11-14 per cent in 2047.
The Aayog, however, pointed out that the research report does not represent the views of the government or that of NITI Aayog.
“India’s reliance on coal will persist even in 2047 with an envisaged share of 42-50 per cent in energy mix. India would like to use its abundant coal reserves as it provides a cheap source of energy and ensures energy security as well,” the report said.
It said India, with the fourth largest coal reserves, would like to use its abundant supplies efficiently to maintain energy security.
“India will achieve peak production of coal in 2037, after which the production will decline and India will depend on imports to meet its requirements,” it said.
Moreover, according to report, the penetration of renewables is definitely going to increase with its share rising to 11-14 per cent in 2047 from 3.7 per cent in 2012.
The imports of coal have risen at a CAGR of 18 per cent from 39 MT in 2005-06 to 200 MT in 2015-16.
The report further pointed out that the share of coal in the energy mix for India and the world is 58 per cent and 29 per cent, whereas that of natural gas is 6.5 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively.
As India’s energy and electricity demand is likely to grow at a CAGR of 3.7-4.5 per cent and 5.4-5.7 per cent respectively till 2047, the report said that the pressure on natural resources to fuel the demand would only rise in the future.
Citing data, it said that with a share of 18 per cent of the world population, India consumes only 6 per cent of the world’s primary energy.
“India houses nearly 304 million people without access to electricity (25 per cent of the global population without access to electricity) and 800 million people without access to clean cooking fuels,” the report said.
Besides, it also pointed out that the share of gas in energy mix has dropped from a high of 11 per cent in 2009 to 6.5 per cent in 2015 as domestic production in India started declining from 2010 onwards.
Although the government has taken major steps to reform the gas sector, to make it move towards a market-based mechanism, the report said, “the action on the ground is still to be seen as the gas-based power plants (14,305 MW) and steel plants (9.3 MT) are stranded because they are not able to absorb the prices of imported LNG and become uncompetitive”.