Report prepared by Deloitte brings out a realistic and optimistic coal demand across India
The power sector in Tamil Nadu may see a maximum coal demand of 65.7 million tonnes by the financial year 2030 from actual consumption of 27.95 million tonnes in financial year 2022, as per government’s report on Integrated Coal Logistics Plan for efficient coal evacuation.
The report prepared by Deloitte brings out a realistic and optimistic coal demand across India factoring in the macro-economic forecasts for the power sector and also long-term State-wise electricity demand forecast by Central Electricity Authority.
The realistic coal demand for the power sector in Tamil Nadu is projected at 56.6 million tonnes. For the existing power capacities in Tamil Nadu, the realistic projection for coal demand is 43.43 million tonnes and the optimistic estimate is at 50.46 million tonnes.
As per the report, Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited’s (Tangedco) existing thermal capacity of 4,320 MW would see a coal demand of 25.98 million tonnes based on optimistic estimates and 22.34 million tonnes based on realistic estimates.
In the financial year 2022, the actual consumption of Tangedco’s power plants was 16.48 million tonnes. As per State Energy Department policy note for 2023-24, Tangedco’s annual requirement coal for existing power plants at 85% plant load factor is 22.34 million tonnes per annum.
The Coal Ministry’s plan takes into account plant load factor of 73.15% on a realistic basis and 85% on an optimistic basis for Tangedco’s existing power plants. In the financial year 2022, the plant load factors ranged from 49% to 65%.
For upcoming thermal capacities of Tangedco of 3,440 MW, the realistic coal demand is estimated at 13.13 million tonnes and in an optimistic scenario it is projected at 15.26 million tonnes.
The upcoming thermal plants mentioned in the report include Ennore SEZ Super Critical Thermal Power Project of 1,320 MW, North Chennai Thermal Power Station Stage III expansion of 800 MW and Udangudi Super Critical Thermal Power Project Stage 1 – 1,320 MW