Global market to rebound from coronavirus impact in the long-term
Global wind power capacity additions are expected to sit at an annual average of 77GW from 2020 to 2029, according to Wood Mackenzie. This represents a growth of 112% in global installed capacity from the end of 2019 to the end of 2029.
As noted in Wood Mackenzie’s report, ‘Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q1 2020’, 62GW of wind capacity was added globally in 2019, which is a 23% increase from 2018 and the second-highest annual total after 2015 (63GW).
“A policy-induced build frenzy in China and the US largely drove an 11.5GW uptick in 2019 global net capacity additions when compared with 2018. Significant contributions also came from Argentina (+676MW YoY), Mexico (+883MW YoY), Sweden (+720MW YoY) and Spain (+1.9GW YoY),” said Luke Lewandowski, Wood Mackenzie Research Director.
While the story for 2019 was a positive one, 2020 will not be so lucky. The coronavirus is likely to impact the 150GW bulge in global wind capacity additions expected from 2020 to 2021, says Wood Mackenzie.
Lewandowski added: “Impact from the coronavirus is expected to exacerbate an already pressure-filled 27.5GW two-year build cycle in the US.
“As the production tax credit (PTC) fades, US offshore annual capacity additions will depend increasingly on state leadership. We expect this to yield 23.3GW over the 10-year outlook period.
“Annual additions in Latin America will average more than 4GW. Development of the free market in Brazil, the execution of inaugural auction awards in Colombia, the opportunity presented by coal retirements in Chile and an increasing demand from the C&I segment in Mexico will all contribute to a CAGR of 9% in the region from 2020 to 2029.”
Compliance with the EU’s energy and climate targets for 2030 will drive the addition of 225GW within Europe across the outlook period, according to Wood Mackenzie.
“Land constraints in mature countries will push a quarter of Europe’s growth offshore, where the sector will comprise 32% of additions in Western Europe and 43% of additions in Northern Europe from 2020 to 2029,” said Lewandowski.
Steady annual growth in the Middle East and Africa will result in an astonishing 10-year CAGR of 23%. Nearly 60% of the 48GW forecast for the sub-region is concentrated in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and South Africa
Supply chain constraints and delays caused by the coronavirus will curtail near-term growth potential in China, yet developers will still manage to connect 26GW of wind power to the grid in 2020.
Across the 10-year outlook, Wood Mackenzie expects 250GW of wind power capacity to be brought online in China. Growth in the offshore sector and wind repowering opportunities will bolster onshore development.
The rest of Asia will add 107GW between 2020 and 2029. “Additions in India will account for 51% of new capacity, as the country works to comply with aggressive targets.
“Offshore demand in the rest of the sub-region will add 18GW – or approximately 35% of new capacity – over the outlook period,” added Lewandowski.